Casino Favorites
- October 14
- by Micah Roberts
- VegasInsider.com
Enjoy a favorite casino game on the go with a cutting edge mobile casino. Free Casino Games Play over 225 different games of blackjack, slots, roulette, and video poker for fun. Casino Game Rules Learn basic gameplay for baccarat, craps, blackjack, poker, roulette, and more. Online Casino Payouts View a monthly ranking of top paying.
- 2 days ago The hold percentage is the ratio of chips the casino keeps to the total chips sold. This is generally measured over an entire shift. For example if blackjack table x takes in $1000 in the drop box and of the $1000 in chips sold the table keeps $300 of them (players walked away with the other $700) then the game's hold is 30%.
- Jul 31, 2020 Although every casino player loves to play and win, we must say that beating the odds at any casino is a process. Some days are going to be way better than others. If you are going to play casino games to win money, you will hardly achieve it. Don’t focus too much on the rewards. Instead, focus on improving your skills.
- Feb 25, 2020 The Two Casino Games with the Worst Odds of Winning. The two casino games that are hardest to win also happen to be two of the most popular games to play. They're easy to understand and require little to no skill, so a lot of people play, making lots of money for the casinos.
NASCAR Cup Series
Hollywood Casino 400
Betting Resources
- Race:Hollywood Casino 400
- Date: Sunday, October 18, 2020
- TV-Time: NBC, 2:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Kansas Speedway
- Location: Kansas City, Kansas
Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway will be the 10th of 11 races on 1.5-mile tracks and 19th of 20 races using the race package with engines producing 550 horsepower.
This will be the first of three races in the Round 8 and Kevin Harvick comes in as the No. 1 seed and Denny Hamlin comes in as No. 2.
NASCAR Cup Playoff Odds
- Kevin Harvick +175
- Denny Hamlin +230
- Brad Keselowski +650
- Chase Elliott +750
- Martin Truex Jr. +1000
- Joey Logano +1200
- Alex Bowman +3200
- Kurt Busch +3200
Those two drivers have combined to win 11 of the 18 races using this week’s race package which is why they’re the favorites to win this week. William Hill sportsbooks think Harvick is the overwhelming 5/2 favorite (Bet $100 to win $250) with Hamlin at 4/1 while the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted both as 7/2 co-favorites.
I like the SuperBook’s number better, but I would go a step further and say Hamlin deserves to be the lone favorite because of his current form in his last two races on 1.5s.
He led the most laps at Kansas (57), winning his second straight race there and third overall, and Las Vegas (121) where he finished third after a strange turn of events with a caution while leading that made him restart in the back of the lead lap with 22 laps to go.
NASCAR Cup Odds
Hollywood Casino 400 Odds
Sunday, October 18, 2020
- Denny Hamlin +400
- Kevin Harvick +450
- Chase Elliott +500
- Martin Truex Jr. +600
- Brad Keselowski +800
- Ryan Blaney +1400
- Kyle Busch +1400
- Joey Logano +1400
- (Odds Subject to Change)
NASCAR Cup Series
Handicapping Kansas
Two-Horse Race?
Harvick has only one of nine wins this season on a 1.5 (Atlanta, July 7) while Hamlin has two (Homestead, June 14, Kansas, July 23). I fully expect Hamlin to come in with another great car this week, or maybe even the same one. Three-peat at Kansas?
“Our mentality is the same— win and win now,” Hamlin said. “We’ve had success in the last two races at Kansas, and we’ll look to keep that going. I know my team is going to put a fast car on the track and then it’s up to me to get it across the finish line.”
Hamlin has top-fives in four of his last six Kansas starts and eight in 24 starts overall there. And only he and Martin Truex Jr. have had top-fives in each of the last two races on 1.5s.
Now when I suggest that Hamlin should be the favorite it’s not to be any swipe at Kevin Harvick because he owns a few of the track records. He’s tied for the lead with wins (3) and has the most laps led (864). He’s also tied for the most top-fives (9) among active drivers.
“It’s a racetrack where I’ve won a couple races and, for whatever reason, it just kind of fits my style and what we do with the cars,” Harvick said. “We’ve had a lot of good racecars there to capitalize on the good characteristics that fall into my driving style and we’ve been able to have some good results with it.”
Harvick also is tied for the track record with three runner-ups and has led laps in 12 of his last 14 starts. All three of his wins and runner-ups have come within those last 14 races, the last 13 of which have been with Stewart-Haas Racing. His worst finish since being with SHR is 16th in 2015. He was fourth in the July Kansas race.
Kevin Harvick and the No. 4 team have had plenty of success at Kansas Speedway. (AP)
Other Big Names to Watch
Martin Truex Jr. was third in the last Kansas race after leading 44 laps and tied Harvick and Jimmie Johnson as active leaders with nine top-fives. He’s a two-time winner and also has led 803 laps over his 24 Cup starts. The 1.5-mile tracks have been his prime territory and his history at Kansas has inflated his price a little too high at most books that have him in the 4/1 range.
The reality is that his 2020 hasn’t seen any wins on 1.5s, nor has he won on any of the 18 tracks using this week’s race package. His lone win this season came at Martinsville in the 750 hp package.
Brad Keselowski is a two-time winner at Kansas and was runner-up there in July after leading 30 laps. He won using the 550 hp package at Charlotte in May shortly after NASCAR rebooted the season. He was also runner-up at Michigan in August using it. But the sportsbooks have him in the 7/1 range. I like him but, I can’t do much with those odds.
With Harvick, Hamlin, and Truex having such short prices, we should be able to get everyone else at double-digit odds but to stay within their desired theoretic hold percentage of around 23% they’ve offered 10 drivers that have no shot of winning at 5,000/1.
Finding Value at Kansas
But I do have a couple of drivers I found attractive at odds I can’t complain about, one of them is surprisingly still in the Playoffs and one of them is looking for a 2021 ride.
I’ll start with Alex Bowman because he’s led laps in the last two races on 1.5s finishing fifth at Las Vegas and eighth at Kansas. He was also sixth at Darlington (Sept. 6) and led a lap. His season started so great with a Fontana win and runner-up at Darlington using this week’s race package but didn’t have another top-five using it until Las Vegas. His crew chief Greg Ives has had this race circled for some time.
“I feel like we are going to have a great car in Kansas,” Ives said. “It is one of those tracks that we have had marked on our board, like ‘Hey, this is another place we can win at.’ We have the car capable to do that and we have the team capable of doing that. There are a lot of factors to consider but we are going to go out there with a fast Chevrolet and try to get that win. We have to take advantage of our strengths and we feel that Kansas is one of our strongest tracks when looking at the next three tracks. We have to be aggressive to the point of succeeding, but not over-aggressive.”
William Hill sportsbooks are offering 22/1 for him to win and I do see some value in it because of the upward progression after a poor summer. Bowman gets the automatic bid to be in the Championship 4 at Phoenix with a win.
Long Shot Look
My favorite bet this week is on Erik Jones at 50/1 odds (William Hill). First off, I like the kid, but let’s face it, he blew a golden opportunity to impress Joe Gibbs by not competing better earlier in the season. But Jones has figured he might as well use the great equipment to help find a 2021 ride and he’s been bringing it strong weekly for the last six weeks: fourth at Darlington, 22nd at Richmond, third at Bristol, eighth at Las Vegas, runner-up at Talladega, and third on the Roval.
It’s probably the most versatile stretch of six races you’ll see and he crushed it. I would certainly hire him with that resume if I needed a driver.
Jones doesn’t have just current form going for him or JGR equipment, he’s got great history at Kansas with finishes of seventh or better in his last five starts, including a fifth-place run there in July. I’ve been chasing a legitimate lottery ticket all season to no avail, but I keep swinging for the fences for one. Jones is my guy this week, as well as Bowman. Hamlin is still my top-rated driver.
Hollywood Casino 400
Top-5 Finish Prediction
1) #11 Denny Hamlin (4/1)
2) #19 Martin Truex Jr. (4/1)
3) #20 Erik Jones (50/1)
4) #88 Alex Bowman (22/1)
5) #2 Brad Keselowski (7/1)
NASCAR Cup Series
Weekly Predictions
eNASCAR Picks - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS)
For bettors looking at a larger score and more action, they can turn their attention to eNASCAR DFS. To learn more, check out our beginner's guide to eNASCAR daily fantasy sports.Introduction
The house edge is defined as the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet. In some games the beginning wager is not necessarily the ending wager. For example in blackjack, let it ride, and Caribbean stud poker, the player may increase their bet when the odds favor doing so. In these cases the additional money wagered is not figured into the denominator for the purpose of determining the house edge, thus increasing the measure of risk. For games like Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em and Crazy 4 Poker, where there are two required initial wagers, the house edge is based on one of them only. House edge figures are based on optimal or near-optimal player strategy.
The table below shows the house edge of most popular casino games and bets.
Casino Game House Edge
| Game | Bet/Rules | House Edge | Standard Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baccarat | Banker | 1.06% | 0.93 |
| Player | 1.24% | 0.95 | |
| Tie | 14.36% | 2.64 | |
| Big Six | $1 | 11.11% | 0.99 |
| $2 | 16.67% | 1.34 | |
| $5 | 22.22% | 2.02 | |
| $10 | 18.52% | 2.88 | |
| $20 | 22.22% | 3.97 | |
| Joker/Logo | 24.07% | 5.35 | |
| Bonus Six | No insurance | 10.42% | 5.79 |
| With insurance | 23.83% | 6.51 | |
| Blackjacka | Liberal Vegas rules | 0.28% | 1.15 |
| Caribbean Stud Poker | 5.22% | 2.24 | |
| Casino War | Go to war on ties | 2.88% | 1.05 |
| Surrender on ties | 3.70% | 0.94 | |
| Bet on tie | 18.65% | 8.32 | |
| Catch a Wave | 0.50% | d | |
| Craps | Pass/Come | 1.41% | 1.00 |
| Don't pass/don't come | 1.36% | 0.99 | |
| Odds — 4 or 10 | 0.00% | 1.41 | |
| Odds — 5 or 9 | 0.00% | 1.22 | |
| Odds — 6 or 8 | 0.00% | 1.10 | |
| Field (2:1 on 12) | 5.56% | 1.08 | |
| Field (3:1 on 12) | 2.78% | 1.14 | |
| Any craps | 11.11% | 2.51 | |
| Big 6,8 | 9.09% | 1.00 | |
| Hard 4,10 | 11.11% | 2.51 | |
| Hard 6,8 | 9.09% | 2.87 | |
| Place 6,8 | 1.52% | 1.08 | |
| Place 5,9 | 4.00% | 1.18 | |
| Place 4,10 | 6.67% | 1.32 | |
| Place (to lose) 4,10 | 3.03% | 0.69 | |
| 2, 12, & all hard hops | 13.89% | 5.09 | |
| 3, 11, & all easy hops | 11.11% | 3.66 | |
| Any seven | 16.67% | 1.86 | |
| Crazy 4 Poker | Ante | 3.42%* | 3.13* |
| Double Down Stud | 2.67% | 2.97 | |
| Heads Up Hold 'Em | Blind pay table #1 (500-50-10-8-5) | 2.36% | 4.56 |
| Keno | 25%-29% | 1.30-46.04 | |
| Let it Ride | 3.51% | 5.17 | |
| Pai Gowc | 1.50% | 0.75 | |
| Pai Gow Pokerc | 1.46% | 0.75 | |
| Pick ’em Poker | 0% - 10% | 3.87 | |
| Red Dog | Six decks | 2.80% | 1.60 |
| Roulette | Single Zero | 2.70% | e |
| Double Zero | 5.26% | e | |
| Sic-Bo | 2.78%-33.33% | e | |
| Slot Machines | 2%-15%f | 8.74g | |
| Spanish 21 | Dealer hits soft 17 | 0.76% | d |
| Dealer stands on soft 17 | 0.40% | d | |
| Super Fun 21 | 0.94% | d | |
| Three Card Poker | Pairplus | 7.28% | 2.85 |
| Ante & play | 3.37% | 1.64 | |
| Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em | Ante | 2.19% | 4.94 |
| Video Poker | Jacks or Better (Full Pay) | 0.46% | 4.42 |
| Wild Hold ’em Fold ’em | 6.86% | d |
Notes
| a | Liberal Vegas Strip rules: Dealer stands on soft 17, player may double on any two cards, player may double after splitting, resplit aces, late surrender. |
| b | Las Vegas single deck rules are dealer hits on soft 17, player may double on any two cards, player may not double after splitting, one card to split aces, no surrender. |
| c | Assuming player plays the house way, playing one on one against dealer, and half of bets made are as banker. |
| d | Yet to be determined. |
| e | Standard deviation depends on bet made. |
| f | Slot machine range is based on available returns from a major manufacturer |
| g | Slot machine standard deviation based on just one machine. While this can vary, the standard deviation on slot machines are very high. |
Guide to House Edge
The reason that the house edge is relative to the original wager, not the average wager, is that it makes it easier for the player to estimate how much they will lose. For example if a player knows the house edge in blackjack is 0.6% he can assume that for every $10 wager original wager he makes he will lose 6 cents on the average. Most players are not going to know how much their average wager will be in games like blackjack relative to the original wager, thus any statistic based on the average wager would be difficult to apply to real life questions.
The conventional definition can be helpful for players determine how much it will cost them to play, given the information they already know. However the statistic is very biased as a measure of risk. In Caribbean stud poker, for example, the house edge is 5.22%, which is close to that of double zero roulette at 5.26%. However the ratio of average money lost to average money wagered in Caribbean stud is only 2.56%. The player only looking at the house edge may be indifferent between roulette and Caribbean stud poker, based only the house edge. If one wants to compare one game against another I believe it is better to look at the ratio of money lost to money wagered, which would show Caribbean stud poker to be a much better gamble than roulette.
Many other sources do not count ties in the house edge calculation, especially for the Don’t Pass bet in craps and the banker and player bets in baccarat. The rationale is that if a bet isn’t resolved then it should be ignored. I personally opt to include ties although I respect the other definition.
Element of Risk
For purposes of comparing one game to another I would like to propose a different measurement of risk, which I call the 'element of risk.' This measurement is defined as the average loss divided by total money bet. For bets in which the initial bet is always the final bet there would be no difference between this statistic and the house edge. Bets in which there is a difference are listed below.
Element of Risk
| Game | Bet | House Edge | Element of Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackjack | Atlantic City rules | 0.43% | 0.38% |
| Bonus 6 | No insurance | 10.42% | 5.41% |
| Bonus 6 | With insurance | 23.83% | 6.42% |
| Caribbean Stud Poker | 5.22% | 2.56% | |
| Casino War | Go to war on ties | 2.88% | 2.68% |
| Crazy 4 Poker | Standard rules | 3.42%* | 1.09% |
| Heads Up Hold 'Em | Pay Table #1 (500-50-10-8-5) | 2.36% | 0.64% |
| Double Down Stud | 2.67% | 2.13% | |
| Let it Ride | 3.51% | 2.85% | |
| Spanish 21 | Dealer hits soft 17 | 0.76% | 0.65% |
| Spanish 21 | Dealer stands on soft 17 | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| Three Card Poker | Ante & play | 3.37% | 2.01% |
| Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em | 2.19%* | 0.53% | |
| Wild Hold ’em Fold ’em | 6.86% | 3.23% |
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is a measure of how volatile your bankroll will be playing a given game. This statistic is commonly used to calculate the probability that the end result of a session of a defined number of bets will be within certain bounds.
The standard deviation of the final result over n bets is the product of the standard deviation for one bet (see table) and the square root of the number of initial bets made in the session. This assumes that all bets made are of equal size. The probability that the session outcome will be within one standard deviation is 68.26%. The probability that the session outcome will be within two standard deviations is 95.46%. The probability that the session outcome will be within three standard deviations is 99.74%. The following table shows the probability that a session outcome will come within various numbers of standard deviations.
I realize that this explanation may not make much sense to someone who is not well versed in the basics of statistics. If this is the case I would recommend enriching yourself with a good introductory statistics book.
Standard Deviation
| Number | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0.25 | 0.1974 |
| 0.50 | 0.3830 |
| 0.75 | 0.5468 |
| 1.00 | 0.6826 |
| 1.25 | 0.7888 |
| 1.50 | 0.8664 |
| 1.75 | 0.9198 |
| 2.00 | 0.9546 |
| 2.25 | 0.9756 |
| 2.50 | 0.9876 |
| 2.75 | 0.9940 |
| 3.00 | 0.9974 |
| 3.25 | 0.9988 |
| 3.50 | 0.9996 |
| 3.75 | 0.9998 |
Hold
Although I do not mention hold percentages on my site the term is worth defining because it comes up a lot. The hold percentage is the ratio of chips the casino keeps to the total chips sold. This is generally measured over an entire shift. For example if blackjack table x takes in $1000 in the drop box and of the $1000 in chips sold the table keeps $300 of them (players walked away with the other $700) then the game's hold is 30%. If every player loses their entire purchase of chips then the hold will be 100%. It is possible for the hold to exceed 100% if players carry to the table chips purchased at another table. A mathematician alone can not determine the hold because it depends on how long the player will sit at the table and the same money circulates back and forth. There is a lot of confusion between the house edge and hold, especially among casino personnel.
Holland Casino Favorites Punten
Hands per Hour, House Edge for Comp Purposes
The following table shows the average hands per hour and the house edge for comp purposes various games. The house edge figures are higher than those above, because the above figures assume optimal strategy, and those below reflect player errors and average type of bet made. This table was given to me anonymously by an executive with a major Strip casino and is used for rating players.
Hands per Hour and Average House Edge
| Games | Hands/Hour | House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Baccarat | 72 | 1.2% |
| Blackjack | 70 | 0.75% |
| Big Six | 10 | 15.53% |
| Craps | 48 | 1.58% |
| Car. Stud | 50 | 1.46% |
| Let It Ride | 52 | 2.4% |
| Mini-Baccarat | 72 | 1.2% |
| Midi-Baccarat | 72 | 1.2% |
| Pai Gow | 30 | 1.65% |
| Pai Pow Poker | 34 | 1.96% |
| Roulette | 38 | 5.26% |
| Single 0 Roulette | 35 | 2.59% |
| Casino War | 65 | 2.87% |
| Spanish 21 | 75 | 2.2% |
| Sic Bo | 45 | 8% |
| 3 Way Action | 70 | 2.2% |
Footnotes
* — House edge based on Ante bet only as opposed to all mandatory wagers (for example the Blind in Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em and the Super Bonus in Crazy 4 Poker.
Cached
Translation
A Spanish translation of this page is available at www.eldropbox.com.